The midterms passed the trust test, but 2028 will be harder

All year, moderate women told me they weren’t sure their ballots would be counted fairly. On November 3, they got their answer. The 2026 midterms were the most watched in memory; the results made history, but voting itself was among the least eventful.

Few saw that coming. Since 2020, Americans’ confidence in how their votes are counted has worn thin. Going into the midterms, the country was split down the middle: 49% of Americans were confident in the honesty of U.S. elections, and 51% were not. Fears about pressured officials, mishandled ballots, and refusals to certify had taken hold on both sides of the aisle.

To meet the moment, there was scrutiny unlike anything we’ve ever seen. The Justice Department sent roughly 1,000 monitors and observersinto all 50 states for the first time. State Democratic parties trained an estimated 10,000 volunteers to watch the polls, and the Republican National Committee deployed thousands of its own.

Election officials who prepared for confrontation were relieved to see everything run smoothly. One Pennsylvania county director called it“very boring, but with very good turnout.” I was grateful that the system worked this year. I also know one good election guarantees nothing about the next.

It’s no surprise that the economy dominated the midterms, but preserving democracy — and the elections that power it — was the second most important issue for moderate white women, a 49 million-strong voting bloc that has swung control of Congress for decades.

This year, Galvanize Action studied them more closely than ever, and they told us they held both parties’ election fears. In our Fall survey, 67% worried about political leaders pressuring election officials and 59% worried ballots wouldn’t be properly handled or counted. Roughly half feared intimidation near polling places, and 40% worried about being confronted while voting. Every figure fell within three points of the whole country.

On Election Day, these fears were tested, but the safeguards in place worked. In Dearborn and Flint, federal monitors pressed Michigan poll workers about their training, which state law doesn’t allow. New Mexico officials flagged reports of monitors questioning voters and received assurances it would be addressed. Floods forced officials in seven Florida counties to move more than 20 polling places, and Fulton County, Georgia, warned votersabout fake texts sending them to the wrong precinct. Each time, officials spotted the problem, fixed it, and told voters.

Much of that work happened in the courts, before anyone cast their ballot. A federal judge ordered that DOJ monitors stay unarmed, out of uniform, and without arrest authority. Courts blocked a last-minute attempt to force California to set aside ballots from voters the administration suspected were noncitizens. Those lawyers and judges deserve credit. Because of them, the rules were set in public, in advance, and voters watched officials uphold them.

Leaders did their part, too. President Trump, who previously said he would accept the results only if the elections were “honest,” told the New York Times he was “absolutely willing to accept” them. Other Republican leaders followed. House Speaker Mike Johnson said he was disappointed in the results but “never discouraged.” Voters delivered decisive margins in many races, which gave losing candidates room to concede gracefully.

Moderate women’s confidence was also rising before Election Day. In our October survey, 71% said they were confident votes would be counted as intended, up from 55% in March. But only 27% were very confident, and nearly a quarter still were not confident.

One smooth election may move that number even further, but holding it through a tight presidential race in 2028 will take preparation. The good news is, leaders have two years to do it.

It starts with a message that answers both parties’ fears at once. A pledge to keep hands off election officials speaks to those worried about pressure. Pair that with the safeguards on ballot handling, and it reaches those worried about mishandling too. Every state should define what monitors, observers, and poll watchers may and may not do, and publish it where voters can find it. Candidates from either party can deliver that message, and candidates of both parties should.

Then comes the commitment that matters most: accepting the results without conditions. Reps. Don Bacon and Josh Gottheimer asked House colleagues to accept the midterm results in writing. Every 2028 presidential candidate should sign the same pledge before the first primary.

I’ve spent this year listening to moderate women, and what they want from elections isn’t complicated. They want to know how their ballots will be counted, and they want leaders who’ll respect the outcome no matter who wins. Both parties have spent decades chasing their votes. The ones who earn their trust will help give the country results it can believe.

Jackie Payne is the founder and executive director of Galvanize Action, which studies how to engage ideologically moderate women in civic life.