Betting on Bipartisanship

Imagine you’ve just stepped out of a classified briefing in a SCIF at the Capitol. Inside, you were given Top Secret intelligence about the military’s next moves in the Middle East – information shared with only a handful of people in the world.

The meeting ends. You walk into the hallway, pull out your phone, and open a prediction market site. There’s a live wager on the exact timeline of military action in the Middle East.

For most people, it’s a high-risk, high-reward gamble.

For you, it isn’t a gamble at all. You already know the answer.

So you place a bet – and you win big.

Right now, there are virtually no guardrails to prevent this kind of abuse. No meaningful transparency. No real accountability. In the fast-growing world of prediction markets, we are operating in a regulatory gray zone – a financial wild west where those with privileged information can quietly profit.

But it goes even deeper than unfair advantage. When individuals with access to sensitive information can place high-stakes bets on geopolitical events, economic decisions, or government actions, it creates a dangerous incentive structure. The ability to profit from outcomes could subtly influence decision-making itself. That’s not just an ethics issue; it’s a national security risk.With trust in Congress at an all-time low, murky behavior like this only erodes that trust further and faster. That’s where our bill comes in.

The PREDICT Act is the first bipartisan legislation of its kind to draw a clear line: elected officials, senior executive branch leaders, and key staff would be prohibited from placing wagers on policy decisions or political outcomes. Not discouraged – banned.

This isn’t about stopping someone from placing a bet on the March Madness champions. Where’s the fun in that?

It’s much more serious – it’s about stopping those entrusted with power from using inside knowledge to enrich themselves.

We already require Members of Congress and senior staff to disclose financial holdings and transactions. This bill builds on that principle. If someone violates the ban, they would forfeit any profits and pay a meaningful financial penalty.

What makes this effort different – and important – is that it’s bipartisan.

At a moment when Americans see division in nearly every corner of public life, this is a chance to come together around something fundamental: fairness. It also means it has the best chance of actually moving through the House and becoming law.

Americans, no matter their political affiliation, are tired of those in charge abusing their position. This bill speaks directly to them and makes clear – public service should never be a pathway to personal profit. It is a privilege – and it’s time our laws reflect that.

Rebuilding that trust won’t happen overnight. But it can start with clear, common-sense steps that demonstrate accountability.

The PREDICT Act is one of those steps.